5 Things I’m Expecting to Change for the Space Economy Under a Second Trump Administration

Change feels like an understatement as 2024 closes and 2025 rises. With the definitive US election in November, the government will align along Republican lines and time will tell whether the majority will unite to push forward the full scope of President Trump’s agenda. There will be plenty of analysis on myriad issues and decisions, but one where there is some optimism for the accuracy of the prognostications is in space. The first Trump Administration pursued an aggressive and effective space agenda creating the 2020 National Space Policy and a series of Space Policy Directives . A reinvigorated space policy and activities landscape is likely ahead of the space industry and we need to get ready now for what’s coming. Here are the top features I’m looking for in a new Trump Administration for space. National Space Council: Since it was reinvigorated in 2017 , the Trump National Space Council (NSpC) under the leadership of Vice President Mike Pence was very active. It produced seven space policy directives and a new National Space Policy. This policy environment addressed issues such as cybersecurity, position, navigation, and timing (PNT), and reinvigorating human space flight. The Artemis Accords , now at 48 signatories, was signed in 2020 and has proved to be an important piece of space policy. The NSpC under the Biden Administration was considerably less active. The 2021 Space Priorities Framework is one of the most significant pieces of formal policy from the Biden era, but pales in comparison to the body of work from the previous 4 years. In 2022, Vice President Harris announced the US would not take part in testing destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles in a speech at Vandenberg Space Force Base. The effort was put forward to the United Nations in an effort to make it a binding resolution. While this was an important step in establishing norms of behavior in space, it was met with criticism and will likely take much more time to become established at the UN and in practice around the world. Share Expectation The Trump Administration will renew momentum behind the NSpC and we should expect to see more space policy directives and perhaps a new National Space Policy. These will not reach the levels of regulation but will focus on space as a priority and a possible counter to Chinese activities in the domain as well. Launch Baby, Launch: With the central role of SpaceX owner Elon Musk in the early Trump Administration, we should expect to see an expansion of SpaceX contracts for additional space flight. This is also due to the successes of SpaceX and the failures of Boeing. With Starship becoming closer to reality, we may see the first rounds of transport of materials from one location to the other on earth via space. This is a significant change from the norm of launching materials to the International Space Station only. Regulatory changes, a major goal of Elon Musk, will be harder to achieve because those authorities reside in statute. With a Republican Congress, such changes are not out of the question, but will face some challenge. Expectation More government contracts will flow to SpaceX and other commercial space companies, and we will see an increase in launch volume. That increase will also likely come with at least a modest reduction in launch cost per kilogram, which would be a benefit for the community as a whole. Infrastructure Preparations for missions to Mars will get more serious, though will not likely be launched. In order to get closer to that reality, the commercial and government space stakeholders will need to begin to build the infrastructure that will support these missions. Plans are already underway for LunaNet and MarsLink to provide communications, PNT, and internet connectivity services for lunar and potential Mars missions. To accomplish missions in the near term, this system needs to be in place along with other supporting infrastructure such as lunar and/or Martian satellites, permanent or semi-permanent habitations, and supply drops. Subscribe now Expectation Within the increased launch schedule, expect to see the creation of actual space infrastructure in cislunar and interplanetary space. This is a critical step to making longer missions a reality. Commercial Spaceports A critical piece of terrestrial infrastructure are the commercial spaceports that have been built and are in some cases operational. These spaceports will need to be secured for consistent and safe operations. While this will fall well below the regulatory threshold, the US government will need to sort out which agencies have authority over the physical and cybersecurity of commercial spaceports. In the case of commercial airports, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has this authority. It is unclear whether TSA will have the same authority for spaceports and clarity around this issue will be important. FAA’s authority runs out of runway (pun intended) at this issue. Expectation The White House will direct the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to figure out how to use its authorities to address this gap giving DHS a more defined role in the space economy. Artemis in the Spotlight The Artemis program is slated to send the first woman and first person of color to the moon in 2026 aboard Artemis III. This mission is critical for onward missions to Mars and asteroids where many hope to unlock economic value. The establishment of a semi-permanent habitation on the lunar surface is also a significant milestone, which will be enabled by the Artemis III landing. Such an accomplishment should be a source of pride for all of humanity but that goes double for the new occupant of the White House. This milestone will be a significant point of pride in the new Administration so we should expect to see focus on the Artemis program, if not some public frustration if there are delays. Leave a comment Expectation The success of the Artemis III mission will become a central point of the Trump Administration and a potential future Vance campaign. This is an unassailable good news story on which both men will seek to capitalize. As we move into the new Administration, organizations in the space industry and their customers should be preparing now for a possible ramp up of space activities. A lot of this will depend significantly on the level of interest that Vice President Elect JD Vance will show NSpC as its Chair. There is good evidence to suggest that there will be momentum behind space activities. The space economy is growing and will likely see continued, if not accelerated, growth during the term of the incoming Administration. The future is not certain and there will be plenty of time to analyze the changes that are coming across issues. However, space holds promise for serious economic opportunity in the infrastructure required to enable and sustain the most ambitious missions into cislunar space and beyond. This article was written by Nick Reese, COO of Frontier Foundry. Visit his LinkedIn here . To stay up to date with Frontier Foundry’s work, please follow us on LinkedIn and visit our website . To learn more about the services we offer, please visit our product page. Leave a comment