Was 2024 the Year of Quantum?

Was 2024 the Year of Quantum? Sitting center stage in nearly every conversation about post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is one question: When? To this statement I can personally attest as I’ve been asked this question over and over since my direct involvement in quantum policies began around five years ago. The questions are as understandable as they are frustrating. If there’s a threat, we should know when it’s coming. After all, isn’t that part of physics? Things must exist at a place and time. With quantum computing, we know the place, but not the time. But without a lot of fanfare, 2024 may have ended up being one of the more consequential years in the development of quantum computing and in the preparation for PQC for two reasons: NIST’s publication of the PQC encryptions standards Google’s announcement of its Willow chip There remains a lot to discuss on both topics, but it is worth pointing out that these two advances could prove foundational as the quantum clock continues to tick. We may not know the position of its hands, but we know quantum computing science continues to tick forward and when it reaches the end, we will be faced with the most significant cybersecurity threat of our lifetimes. Subscribe now We are Living in a Lattice World, and I am a Lattice Boy The August 2024 release of the NIST PQC standards was much anticipated among a niche group of people but is significant for all. Without going into depth on advanced cryptographic topics, NIST changed the math on which our standard internet and communications encryption is based. The current encryption that is active on the device in front of which you stand right now is based on the factoring a very large number (public key) into prime number factors (private key). This is difficult for a classical computer to do because of its deterministic nature. Instead, NIST replaced what is not at heart a difficult mathematical operation with a few that definitely are: CRYSTALS-Kyber : The primary standard for general encryption. CRYSTALS-Dilithium : The primary standard for digital signatures. Sphincs+ : A hash-based digital signatures algorithm. Less than half of 2024 was available for additional analysis on these algorithms and integration into products. Part of the reasons was that ever present question of when. We need to do this, but do we need to do it now? December of 2024 may have given us an answer. A Wind in the Willow The wind was certainly blowing Google’s way when it revealed in December 2024 that it had tested a new quantum chip, Willow, and that it had done something extraordinary. Google claimed that its chip could do two things: The error rate would reduce as the number of qubits increased. It solved a benchmark problem that would take a classical computer 10 septillion year to solve (that’s 10 with 25 zeros after it). Lots to unpack here. Counting the number of qubits in a quantum computer or chip has always been an imperfect way to measure quantum progress. The real problem is error rate. Qubits are notoriously difficult to work with, so much so that we need to cool them down to just a hair above absolute zero to get them to chill out. This difficulty makes the error rate in quantum computers high, which is, not shockingly, a problem when you are talking about computation. Ideally, you’d like your computation to be correct and not full of errors. Google has been focusing on the reduction of error rate for some time to include when I visited Google’s Santa Barbara lab in 2022. When more qubits are added, the error rate tends to go up. If Google’s approach to error correction, where the error rate goes down when more quibts are added, not up, proves to be correct and repeatable, 2024 will indeed prove to be a foundational year in quantum computing. Share The second claim involving solving a computing benchmark in 5 minutes that would otherwise take several times the life of our universe to solve also made news. This is partly because a number with 25 zeros after it makes for wonderful clickbait. It’s also because it’s a major claim. This is also known as achieving quantum supremacy , and it’s a claim Google has made before . Google claimed that it achieved a computational feat that could not be achieved on a classical computer in 2019 and the claim was immediately disputed. Some of those disputes were from competitors like IBM, but there were other reasons to question the claim. In 2024, the claim has been made a second time. Whether this ends up being a true demonstration of quantum supremacy will require more scientific rigor, repeatability, and time. It is also worth noting that classical computing has advanced since 2019 so the claim of quantum supremacy in 2024 is inherently different. Yet, if this claim turns out to be proven out and in less dispute than in 2019, 2024 will go down in history has a pivotal year for quantum computing. The next claim is harder to wrap your head around. Google claims that the computational result of Willow “lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.” The multiverse is a serious idea in physics that we inhabit just one of infinite universes wherein every possible outcome of any event is represented in a new universe. So, right now, there is another Nick sitting at a computer at a dining room table in another universe typing an article about how 2024 is NOT a pivotal year for quantum. If you inhabit that universe, please tell that Nick to not eat so much at Thanksgiving next year. Of course, there’s a universe where a third Nick eats nothing for Thanksgiving, so you get the picture. To recap, some big quantum things happened in 2024. Some require further study, some are real right now. PQC standards publication Second claim of quantum supremacy Potential evidence of a multiverse While the full story of quantum is yet to be written, we should all pause at the end of the year and consider what those bullets mean. 2024 is the year we kicked off (or should have kicked off) our transition to the new PQC encryption standards. It is also the year that Google claimed to have achieved quantum supremacy and solved the error rate scaling problem. To top it off, there might be evidence to suggest a multiverse. The question will still be asked. When? When will a quantum computer that is capable of breaking encryption be ready? The answer is still frustrating, but it is clearer at the end of 2024 than it has been in the past. We are one breakthrough away. Maybe this was the breakthrough, maybe it wasn’t. What we know for sure is that quantum computing and quantum information science are moving forward quickly. But we have the tools to start protecting ourselves now. The PQC standards are out so 2024 ends in a true quantum state. We both are and are not ready for the emergence of quantum computing at scale. We both did and did not solve the error rate problem and achieve quantum supremacy. We won’t know until we open the box of 2025. As we wrap our year, we should reflect on what we’ve seen this year in quantum computing and look at ourselves. Which quantum state are you in? This article was written by Nick Reese, COO of Frontier Foundry. Visit his LinkedIn here . To stay up to date with Frontier Foundry’s work, please follow us on LinkedIn and visit our website . To learn more about the services we offer, please visit our product page. Leave a comment